Peak Season by the Numbers
40%
of annual retail sales happen in Q4
3.6B
packages shipped during holidays
25%
average shipping cost increase
60-90
days of advance planning needed
Every year, businesses face the same challenge: shipping volume surges dramatically from September through December, and the companies that planned ahead capture the opportunity while those that didn't scramble with stockouts, shipping delays, and inflated costs. Whether you're an e-commerce brand, a manufacturer, a distributor, or a local Atlanta business, this guide gives you a concrete, actionable plan for navigating peak season successfully.
Understanding the Peak Season Timeline
Peak season isn't a single event — it's a rolling wave that builds from late summer and crashes through the end of January. Understanding the timeline helps you anticipate demand and allocate resources accordingly.
Early Peak & Back-to-School
Shipping volume begins to climb as retailers stock up for the holiday season. Back-to-school commerce is still active. Amazon Prime Fall Deal Events and early holiday promotions drive additional volume. This is the last window to finalize your packaging supply contracts and place bulk orders.
Ramp-Up & Pre-Holiday Prep
Volume increases 15–20% over baseline. Halloween and early holiday shopping begin. Carrier surcharges typically take effect mid-October. Box manufacturers start experiencing backlog — lead times for custom boxes can stretch to 3–4 weeks. This is when you should have all packaging materials on hand.
Full Peak — Black Friday / Cyber Monday
The biggest surge of the year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday alone can generate 2–3x normal daily shipping volume. Carrier capacity tightens significantly. Packaging supply shortages peak. Average delivery times increase 1–3 days. Carrier pickup windows may be more limited. Plan for 24/7 packing station operations if needed.
Shipping Deadline Crunch
The first two weeks of December are the highest-volume shipping days of the entire year. Carrier cutoff deadlines for guaranteed Christmas delivery fall mid-December. Volume drops sharply after December 20th. Last-minute orders shift to overnight and same-day shipping at premium prices.
Returns Season & Wind-Down
January sees a massive wave of returns — up to 30% of holiday purchases are returned. This requires its own set of packaging supplies, return labels, and processing capacity. Volume gradually normalizes by mid-February. This is also the ideal time to audit your peak season performance and plan improvements for next year.
Demand Forecasting Methods
Accurate demand forecasting is the foundation of peak season preparation. Without it, you're guessing — and guessing leads to either overstocking (tying up cash) or understocking (losing sales). Here are practical methods for forecasting your packaging needs:
Three Approaches to Forecasting
1. Historical Analysis (Most Common)
Look at your shipping data from the previous 2–3 peak seasons. Calculate the percentage increase over baseline for each month. Apply that percentage to your current baseline volume, then add a 10–15% buffer for growth. For example, if you ship 1,000 packages per month normally and last Q4 saw a 60% increase, plan for 1,600 packages/month plus buffer = approximately 1,800 packages/month.
2. Sales Pipeline Analysis
If you sell B2B or have advance orders, use your current sales pipeline to project upcoming volume. Add your confirmed orders, probable orders (weighted by close probability), and a general uplift for walk-in/web orders. This method works well for manufacturers and distributors who have visibility into their order book.
3. Marketing Calendar Alignment
Map your planned promotions, ad campaigns, and product launches against expected shipping volume. Each major promotion typically drives a 20–50% volume spike for 3–5 days. Black Friday emails might drive 3x volume for 48 hours. Factor these spikes into your weekly packaging requirements.
Packaging Inventory Planning
The critical rule for peak season packaging inventory: order 60–90 days ahead of when you'll need it. During peak season, box manufacturers are operating at or near capacity. Lead times that are normally 1–2 weeks can stretch to 4–6 weeks or more. If you wait until October to place your November orders, you may not receive them in time.
Box Size Inventory Mix Recommendations
Most businesses use a surprisingly small number of box sizes for the majority of their shipments. The Pareto principle applies: typically 3–5 box sizes handle 80% of your orders. Here's a recommended inventory mix for peak season:
| Box Size | Typical Use | Stock % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Small (8x6x4 to 12x9x6) | Small consumer products, accessories, cosmetics | 30–35% |
| Medium (12x12x8 to 18x14x12) | Most e-commerce orders, electronics, household items | 35–40% |
| Large (18x18x16 to 24x18x18) | Larger products, multi-item orders, appliances | 15–20% |
| Extra Large (24x24x24+) | Bulk orders, furniture, large equipment | 5–10% |
Review your actual order data to customize these percentages. If your average order is 2–3 small items, you may need more medium boxes (for multi-item packing) than small ones. The goal is to minimize both the number of different sizes you stock and the amount of void fill you use.
Common Supply Shortages During Peak Season
Every peak season, certain packaging materials become difficult to source. Knowing what tends to run short helps you plan proactively:
- ●Standard shipping boxes (12x12x8 through 18x14x12): The most common sizes sell out first because everyone needs them. Order these early and in quantity. Consider having a backup supplier relationship.
- ●Bubble wrap (especially small bubble): Demand for cushioning material spikes alongside box demand. Stock at least 90 days' worth by September.
- ●Packing tape: Surprisingly, tape can be hard to find during peak. It's cheap, so stock up heavily — there's no downside to having extra tape on hand.
- ●Custom printed boxes: Lead times for printed corrugated can stretch to 6–8 weeks during peak. If you use branded boxes, order by August at the latest.
- ●Poly mailers and padded envelopes: E-commerce businesses burn through these rapidly. Many are imported, so supply chain delays can compound the shortage.
Carrier Shipping Deadline Calendar
Major carriers publish their holiday shipping deadlines annually, usually in October. While exact dates change each year, here are the typical windows to plan around for Christmas delivery:
Typical Christmas Delivery Cutoffs
* Dates are approximate and vary by year and destination. Always check current year deadlines with your carrier. Rural and remote destinations may require earlier ship dates.
How to Avoid Peak Season Price Spikes
Peak season brings price increases across the board — from carrier surcharges to packaging material premiums. Here's how to minimize the financial impact:
Carrier Cost Strategies
- ●Negotiate rate locks before October — carriers are more flexible before peak begins
- ●Use regional carriers for local/regional deliveries (often 15–30% cheaper than national carriers during peak)
- ●Ship earlier to avoid expedited shipping premiums; offer customers early-bird discounts to smooth demand
- ●Right-size boxes to avoid dimensional weight surcharges (carriers charge by size, not just weight)
- ●Use a multi-carrier strategy — don't put all volume with one carrier
Packaging Cost Strategies
- ●Buy in bulk during Q2–Q3 when demand is low and prices are most competitive
- ●Consider quality used boxes from suppliers like Box Atlanta — often 40–60% less than new
- ●Lock in pricing with a purchase agreement before peak season starts
- ●Standardize your box sizes to qualify for larger quantity breaks
- ●Build relationships with multiple suppliers so you have backup options when primary is out of stock
Staffing Your Packing Station
Packaging throughput is often the bottleneck during peak season. You can have all the inventory and boxes in the world, but if you can't pack and ship fast enough, orders back up and delivery promises break.
Packing Station Optimization Tips
Building a Backup Supplier Strategy
Single-supplier dependency is one of the biggest risks during peak season. If your sole box supplier runs out of your most-used size or can't meet a delivery date, your entire operation grinds to a halt. Here's how to build resilience:
- ●Maintain at least 2 suppliers for your top 5 box sizes. Place regular orders with both throughout the year to maintain the relationship. Suppliers prioritize established customers during shortages.
- ●Mix new and used box suppliers. Used box suppliers like Box Atlanta often have inventory that new-box manufacturers don't, since their supply comes from diverse commercial sources rather than production schedules.
- ●Know your local options. Local suppliers can deliver in 1–2 days vs. a week or more for national distributors. Build relationships with Atlanta-area box companies before you need them urgently.
- ●Have a “close enough” size ready. If your primary size runs out, know which alternative sizes can work as substitutes. A 14x10x8 box can often substitute for a 12x12x8 with minor adjustments to your packing process.
Month-by-Month Action Plan
Here's your concrete, step-by-step timeline for peak season preparation. Print this out and use it as your planning checklist:
JULY: Strategic Planning
- ✓Review last year's peak season data (volume, costs, damage rates, shortages)
- ✓Build your demand forecast for September through January
- ✓Identify your top 5 box sizes by volume — these are your must-stock items
- ✓Contact backup suppliers to establish pricing and availability
- ✓Begin recruiting seasonal staff if you'll need them
AUGUST: Ordering & Procurement
- ✓Place bulk orders for boxes, tape, cushioning materials, and poly mailers
- ✓Order custom printed boxes now (6–8 week lead time during peak)
- ✓Negotiate carrier rate agreements for Q4
- ✓Confirm warehouse/storage space for additional inventory
- ✓Test and calibrate all packing equipment (scales, label printers, tape machines)
SEPTEMBER: Setup & Training
- ✓All packaging inventory should be received and organized by end of September
- ✓Set up additional packing stations if needed
- ✓Train seasonal staff on packing procedures and quality standards
- ✓Run a “stress test” day at projected peak volume to identify bottlenecks
- ✓Verify all carrier accounts, pickup schedules, and label integrations
OCTOBER: Monitor & Adjust
- ✓Track daily packing volume against forecast — adjust plans if actuals diverge significantly
- ✓Place restock orders for any supplies running low (don't wait until they run out)
- ✓Review and publish your holiday shipping cut-off dates for customers
- ✓Confirm carrier surcharge schedules and adjust shipping rates if needed
NOVEMBER: Execute
- ✓Full peak operation mode — all hands on deck for Black Friday / Cyber Monday
- ✓Daily inventory checks on packaging materials (set reorder trigger points)
- ✓Monitor damage reports and address any packing quality issues immediately
- ✓Have backup plans ready for carrier delays or supply shortages
DECEMBER: Ship & Communicate
- ✓Prioritize orders by shipping deadline — ground shipments first, then expedited closer to Christmas
- ✓Communicate proactively with customers about shipping status and any delays
- ✓After carrier cutoff dates, switch to gift cards / digital products if applicable
- ✓Begin planning for returns season (prepare return labels, restocking area, refund procedures)
JANUARY: Review & Reset
- ✓Process returns efficiently — restock, refurbish, or dispose as appropriate
- ✓Conduct a full post-season review: what worked, what didn't, what to change next year
- ✓Audit remaining packaging inventory — sell surplus, recycle damaged stock
- ✓Document lessons learned while they're fresh and update your SOPs
- ✓Thank your team — they got you through it
Post-Peak Inventory Management
After the holiday rush, many businesses are left with surplus packaging materials. Handling this properly saves money and storage space:
What to Do With Surplus Packaging
Peak season preparation is ultimately about eliminating surprises. The businesses that thrive during the holiday rush are the ones that planned months in advance, built resilient supply chains, trained their teams, and created systems that scale. Start your preparation in July, have everything in place by September, and execute with confidence from October through December. At Box Atlanta, we're here to support your peak season needs — from bulk box orders and rush deliveries to surplus buyback after the rush. Contact us early so we can reserve inventory for your busiest time of year.